The ruling BJP does not have – as on Tuesday evening – the numbers to push through the Lok Sabha the two bills to amend the Constitution and guide its ‘one nation, one election‘ dream a step closer to reality.
The bills – one proposing changes to the duration and dissolution of state legislatures and linking their terms to the Lok Sabha, and a second proposing similar changes to the legislatures of the union territories of Delhi, Jammu and Kashmir, and Puducherry – were tabled in the Lower House today.
Their tabling triggered expected fierce protests from the opposition, with the Congress, the Samajwadi Party, the Trinamool, the DMK, and a raft of smaller parties, including the AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi, all attacking a proposal they said subverts the basic structure of the Constitution.
Two of the BJP’s allies – Andhra Pradesh’s ruling Telugu Desam Party and the Shiv Sena faction led by Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde – expressed support. And the BJP itself came out swinging in its defence, with Mr Meghwal and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju batting hard.
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Recommended by a panel led by ex-President Ram Nath Kovind – which submitted a report in September suggesting measures to make the BJP’s ‘one nation, one poll’, or ONOP, vision come true – these amendments to the Constitution will require a two-thirds majority to clear the Lok Sabha.
The ONOP Numbers Game
And it appears – as the Congress exulted after the vote to table the bills – it the BJP does not have that majority. Party leaders Manickam Tagore and Shashi Tharoor, after the division vote, pointed out the BJP had managed only 269 votes in support of its initiative. 198 MPs stood opposed to it.
“Two-thirds majority (i.e., 307) was needed out of the total 461 votes… but the government secured only (269), while the opposition got 198. The ‘One Nation, One Election’ proposal failed to gain two-thirds support,” Mr Tagore said on X, with a screenshot of the e-voting system.
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“Undoubtedly the government has larger numbers… but to pass it (bills to amend the Constitution) you need a 2/3 majority that they very clearly don’t have,” he told reporters after the House was briefly adjourned, “It is obvious that they should not persist too long with this…” Mr Tharoor said.
Two-thirds majority (307) was needed out of the total 461 votes, but the government secured only 263, while the opposition got 198. The ‘One Nation, One Election’ proposal failed to gain two-thirds support. pic.twitter.com/5GIQQ0qY7r
— Manickam Tagore .B🇮🇳மாணிக்கம் தாகூர்.ப (@manickamtagore) December 17, 2024
While a simple majority of those present and voting is enough to allow a bill to be tabled, legislation to amend the Constitution requires approval from two-third of the members present and voting.
In this case, if today’s division vote was meant to pass and not just introduce the bill, the government’s proposal to amend the Constitution would have been defeated. In fact, even at full strength the BJP and its allies, the National Democratic Alliance, do not have the numbers – it has only 293 MPs in its camp.
The Congress-led INDIA bloc has 234 after a surprisingly strong April-June federal election.
The BJP will, therefore, need support, from non-aligned parties, but there are only two possibilities – the YSR Congress with four MPs and the Akali Dal with one, and both have pledged their support.
That leaves Prime Minister Narendra Modi needing at least nine more votes – not impossible to cobble together for the BJP – for his ‘one nation, one election’ dream to cross the Lok Sabha.
For now, the bill will likely be sent to a joint committee to be constituted based on each party’s Lok Sabha numbers. This will mean the BJP will have the maximum members and lead the committee.
What Is ‘One Nation, One Election’?
Simply put, it means all Indians will vote in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections – to pick central and state representatives – in the same year, if not at the same time.
As of 2024, only four states voted with a Lok Sabha election – Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, and Odisha voted alongside the April-June Lok Sabha election. Three others – Maharashtra, Haryana, and Jammu and Kashmir – voted in October-November.
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The rest follow a non-synced five-year cycle; Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Telangana, for example, were among those voted at different times last year, while Delhi and Bihar will vote in 2025 and Tamil Nadu and Bengal are among those that will vote in 2026.
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