Donald Trump is projected to become the first Republican in two decades to secure the popular vote in the US presidential elections. Trump’s path to the presidency became clearer as he clinched crucial swing states, including North Carolina and Georgia, narrowing Democratic candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances to the White House.
The former president is on track to reclaim the White House, potentially becoming the first Republican to secure the popular vote since George W Bush in 2004. In the 2004 US Presidential elections, Bush won 62,040,610 votes and 286 electoral votes compared to Democratic nominee John Kerry who secured 59,028,444 votes and 251 electoral votes.
According to election voter data of the past 20 years, Barack Obama achieved the largest popular vote victory with 69.5 million votes (52.9 per cent) and a substantial 365 electoral votes in 2008. His second term in 2012, while still a decisive victory, saw a slight decline in popular vote percentage to 51.1 per cent and in electoral votes to 332.
Contrastingly, the 2016 election saw an unusual outcome with Donald Trump winning the presidency with 304 electoral votes but only 46.1 per cent of the popular vote, while Hillary Clinton won 48.2 per cent of the popular vote – a 2.1 per cent margin higher than Trump’s and yet insufficient for victory.
In 2020, Joe Biden secured both a clear popular and electoral majority, winning 51.3 per cent of the popular vote and 306 electoral votes. In comparison, Trump won 74,223,975 votes and his electoral votes stood at 232.
Trump gained early leads in crucial swing states, including North Carolina and Georgia. But the biggest prize of all was winning the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania. With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania victory puts Trump closer to the White House. These wins, combined with his strong showing in traditionally Republican strongholds like Texas and Florida, gave Trump a critical advantage in the electoral vote count.
As results streamed in, Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign found itself scrambling to regain momentum. Despite strong performances in Democratic strongholds, her path to victory seemed to narrow significantly. Harris’s campaign headquarters in Washington, DC advised supporters that the clearest path to victory would now hinge on the so-called “Blue Wall” states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. With Pennsylvania now gone to Trump, all eyes are on the other two states.
Election night saw dramatically different scenes in Washington DC and at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. At Howard University, a historically Black college in the nation’s capital, excitement quickly waned as results began showing Trump’s mounting lead. Harris supporters, many of whom expected her to deliver a landmark victory as the first Black and South Asian woman in the White House, expressed concern and anxiety. Trump supporters at a Palm Beach viewing party on the other hand celebrated early victories.
If confirmed, Trump’s victory would make him the oldest president at the time of inauguration. His return to the White House would also make him the second president ever to serve non-consecutive terms, a feat only previously accomplished by Grover Cleveland in the 19th century.
